Shadow Games: Who’s Waging Hybrid War on Azerbaijan?

11 September 2025 07:07

Hybrid warfare has emerged as the defining form of international conflict in the 21st century—blurring the lines between peace and war, offense and defense. As security experts point out, this is not war in the conventional sense. There’s no invasion, no tanks rolling across borders. Instead, it’s an intricate blend of subversion, cyberattacks, sabotage, and proxy insurgencies. According to NATO, hybrid threats are deployed by adversaries who seamlessly mix traditional and unconventional tactics to achieve strategic gains.

For Azerbaijan—a country wedged into one of the world's most volatile geopolitical neighborhoods—the danger isn’t theoretical. It’s real, it's growing, and it’s already at the doorstep.

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates captured the new battlefield succinctly: “The categories of warfare are becoming more ambiguous and don't fit neatly into boxes. We're dealing with a more complex form of war that leverages everything from cutting-edge tech to primitive tools.”

The DNA of Hybrid Warfare

The term "hybrid warfare" entered the military lexicon in September 2005, thanks to U.S. Marine Corps Lt. Gen. James Mattis. But it was military theorist Frank Hoffman who fleshed out the idea, describing it as “multi-modal” warfare—a toxic cocktail of conventional force, guerrilla tactics, terrorism, and organized crime.

Russia has its own version of this doctrine. In 2013, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov articulated what he called “non-linear warfare,” a strategy built on achieving political and military goals through non-military disruption. The so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine” found its first full-scale application after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

What makes hybrid warfare particularly insidious is that it doesn’t require a declaration of war—or even open combat. It unfolds in peacetime, beneath the radar of international law and security protocols, exploiting the gray zones where traditional deterrence mechanisms fall flat.

The Hybrid Playbook in Azerbaijan

Information Warfare and Psychological Pressure

Russia has launched a multi-pronged information assault on Azerbaijan, relying on anti-Baku rhetoric, targeted punitive actions against Azerbaijani citizens, hostile media narratives, and diplomatic agitation in third countries. One especially provocative move has been Moscow’s vocal support for “protecting the rights of Lezgins”—a thinly veiled attempt to stir ethnic tensions and meddle in Azerbaijan’s internal affairs.

Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure

Cyberwarfare is fast becoming the weapon of choice in the hybrid arsenal. Analysts say Russia is particularly focused on sabotaging vital infrastructure—especially industrial control systems. For Azerbaijan, where oil and gas infrastructure is the economic lifeline, this poses a strategic threat.

Energy pipelines and data transmission networks are especially vulnerable, with evidence suggesting that Russia has been systematically mapping these networks. One telling precedent: the repeated targeting of SOCAR’s oil depots in southern Ukraine and similar digital intrusions aimed at Azerbaijan.

Economic Leverage as a Weapon

Economic coercion is another pillar of hybrid warfare. As Iran’s experience with sanctions has shown, the goal isn’t just to squeeze a government—it’s to make life unbearable for ordinary citizens, including women and children, thereby fueling internal unrest. For Azerbaijan, whose economy leans heavily on hydrocarbon exports, this kind of economic pressure could be destabilizing.

Backing Separatist Movements

Perhaps the oldest trick in the hybrid warfare playbook is the covert support of separatist groups. Security experts warn that external forces often work hand-in-hand with domestic actors, exploiting social fractures, political volatility, and economic disparities. If left unchecked, these alliances between outside powers and local disruptors could merge into a long-term strategic threat.

In Azerbaijan’s case, the message is clear: the battlefield may be invisible, but the stakes are all too real.

A Volatile Neighborhood: The Regional Chessboard Around Azerbaijan

The South Caucasus is boxed in by three assertive regional powers—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—each pursuing its own strategic ambitions. This geopolitical squeeze turns the region into a complex arena of overlapping interests and covert rivalries. Azerbaijan, situated at the crossroads of these power plays, finds itself in an especially precarious position. As these heavyweights expand their spheres of influence, the risk of instability across the region rises sharply.

Global players, wary of direct confrontation with one another, often resort to proxy tactics—leveraging third countries as battlegrounds through hybrid means. This indirect approach only deepens the complexity of an already fragile regional dynamic, and adds layers of uncertainty to Azerbaijan’s national security calculus.

How to Push Back: Counter-Hybrid Strategies

NATO has been steadily refining its playbook for confronting hybrid threats. At the Hague Summit in June 2025, the alliance unveiled a new strategy focused on:

Enhancing surveillance and early warning systems to detect hybrid operations and spot emerging patterns
Reinforcing deterrence against state and non-state actors
Conducting joint drills to hone real-world crisis response
Fusing military, political, technological, and intelligence tools into a unified defense framework

Critically, NATO reaffirmed that hybrid aggression targeting one or more allies could, under certain conditions, trigger Article 5—the alliance’s collective defense clause.

Azerbaijan’s Playbook: Building Resilience from Within

Standing Up a National Hybrid Threat Response Center

A centralized command is essential. A dedicated center for countering hybrid threats would coordinate efforts across government agencies, acting as both a monitoring hub and a strategic think tank. Its core missions: track hostile activity, analyze evolving threats, and craft agile, data-driven countermeasures.

Cybersecurity as a Frontline Defense

With cyberattacks increasing in scope and sophistication, Azerbaijan needs to invest not just in high-grade security tools, but in human capital. Training elite cybersecurity professionals is just as critical as buying the latest firewalls and intrusion-detection systems.

Securing Critical Infrastructure

Energy pipelines, power grids, water systems—these aren’t just economic assets; they’re national lifelines. In an era of sabotage and cyber-disruption, defending them must be a top priority. Hardened protection plans, redundant systems, and contingency protocols are no longer optional—they’re vital.

Social Cohesion as Strategic Armor

Hybrid warfare isn’t just fought on networks or battlefields—it’s waged in minds and communities. Its aim: to sow distrust between citizens and their state. Azerbaijan’s best defense? A unified, resilient society. That means tackling corruption, promoting social equity, and fostering ethnic harmony. Stability at home is the foundation of security abroad.

Leveraging International Partnerships

No country can counter hybrid threats in a vacuum. Azerbaijan must deepen ties with NATO, the EU, and neighboring nations. Intelligence sharing, joint training exercises, and synchronized policy responses can serve as force multipliers, boosting the country’s resilience in the face of a constantly evolving threat landscape.

In a world where war no longer requires an army, Azerbaijan’s security will depend not just on its military might—but on its ability to adapt, to unify, and to out-think the shadow players behind hybrid conflict.

What Lies Ahead: Forecasts and Strategic Imperatives for Azerbaijan

Security analysts are warning of a sharp escalation in hybrid threats between August and October 2025, with likely strikes on transportation hubs, energy grids, and even social institutions. The goal? Cripple logistics, fracture society, and undercut the economy. For Azerbaijan, whose prosperity hinges on stable supply chains and critical infrastructure, the threat of economic paralysis is very real—and very urgent.

Looking further ahead, full-spectrum hybrid offensives are expected through the end of 2026. These could combine cyberattacks, drone swarms, sabotage operations, and even terrorist strikes on civilian targets. It’s a chilling forecast that demands immediate fortification of the country’s national security architecture.

Not Just a Military Battle—A National Effort

In hybrid warfare, brute force alone won’t deliver victory. This is not a war that tanks or fighter jets can win. It’s a conflict that tests the cohesion of an entire nation—requiring the alignment of government institutions, civic society, media, and ordinary citizens.

Experts stress that the only viable path forward is a measured, multilayered response: one that blends military readiness with political resolve and, most importantly, national unity. Without that societal glue, even the most advanced defenses risk cracking under pressure.

The Battle for the Narrative

At the core of every hybrid conflict lies a war of perception. Misinformation, propaganda, and psychological manipulation are not just sideshows—they’re central weapons. Which is why Azerbaijan must invest heavily in its own media capabilities. Strengthening information sovereignty is no longer optional; it’s an essential line of defense.

A Sovereignty Issue, Not Just a Security Challenge

Crafting a coherent and robust response to hybrid warfare is now a question of national survival. It’s about safeguarding sovereignty in a region where the rules are being rewritten daily. And that means going beyond firewalls and drones. It requires building human capital, nurturing civil society, and ensuring that all arms of the nation speak with one voice when it matters most.

Agility Is the New Strategy

Hybrid threats are global, fast-moving, and ever-evolving. In this environment, strategic rigidity is a liability. Azerbaijan must build a strategy that’s not only strong but also agile—capable of adjusting in real time to new threats and shifting geopolitical winds.

In today’s world, where the battlefield can be a pipeline, a power grid, or a Twitter feed, the only constant is change. Strategy, then, becomes less about doctrine and more about adaptation. It’s not enough to plan once. The plan must evolve—again and again—because in hybrid warfare, the war never really ends.

Sources:

· Hybrid Warfare in Azerbaijan: A Challenge to National Security
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360329531_Hybrid_Warfare_in_Azerbaijan_A_Challenge_to_National_Security

· South Caucasus at crossroads of hybrid aggression
https://www.azernews.az/analysis/246571.html

· The Hidden Battlefield: How Azerbaijan Defends Its Future
https://www.bakunetwork.org/en/news/analytics/14136

· Cyber intrusions in S Caucasus: Azerbaijan at frontline of hybrid conflict
https://www.azernews.az/analysis/247036.html

· Baku Steps Up with Institutional Response to Hybrid Threats
https://www.bakunetwork.org/en/news/analytics/13914

· Eastern Partnership countries in flux: From identity politics to militarization of foreign relations
https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/hybrid-coe-trend-report-9-eastern-partnership-countries-in-flux-from-identity-politics-to-militarization-of-foreign-relations/

· Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/7/pdf/241007-hybrid-threats-and-hybrid-warfare.pdf

· Violation of territorial integrity as a tool for waging long-term hybrid warfare
https://securityanddefence.pl/Violation-of-territorial-integrity-as-a-tool-for-waging-long-term-hybrid-warfare%2C174507%2C0%2C2.html

· EU‑NATO and the Eastern Partnership countries against hybrid threats
https://behorizon.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/HORIZON-INSIGHTS-VOL-4-ISSUE-4-EU-NATO-and-the-Eastern-Partnership-countries-against-hybrid-threats.pdf

· Russian hybrid warfare in Europe (2022–present)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_hybrid_warfare_in_Europe_%282022%E2%80%93present%29

· New generation warfare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_generation_warfare