The Baltic Lever on Moscow for Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei
A few remarks on Europe’s security architecture that I believe will be of particular interest to my colleagues in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan—especially those engaged in defense and security affairs. These reflections are especially timely given the growing threats posed by the formalized alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang and the tacit partnership between Moscow and Beijing. It is evident that cooperation between the Kremlin and North Korea could not exist without at least implicit approval from the Chinese Communist Party.
Today, Moscow is actively assisting the North Korean regime in the development of military technologies and production capacities. In exchange, Pyongyang provides substantial support to Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine—a conflict that has also become a proxy confrontation with NATO and the EU. Meanwhile, China sustains Putin economically, technologically, and at times politically, using Russia as a battering ram against the Euro-Atlantic order.
This dynamic is especially alarming in Asia:
South Korea’s capital remains within immediate range of North Korean artillery and swarms of low-cost drones.
Taiwan has faced escalating military preparations from the PRC in recent years.
The Baltic states confront a mounting Russian military presence along their borders, particularly in Belarus, where the Lukashenko regime and the Belarusian army openly support Moscow.
The risk cannot be ignored: a potential Chinese blockade or direct aggression against Taiwan could be accompanied by a coordinated hybrid assault by Russia and Belarus against the Baltic states—an attempt to raise the stakes in a global confrontation. Such a scenario could involve offers to NATO to “trade” territory and hostages on Kremlin terms, while North Korea launches massive artillery and drone attacks on South Korea. It is no secret that Kim Jong Un harbors no intention of peaceful coexistence or gradual reunification of the Korean Peninsula. On the contrary, he appears convinced that the current geopolitical moment offers him a chance to enter history as the “iron and blood” unifier of the Korean people.
Given these threats, Asian democracies must consider symmetrical responses. Beyond the long-discussed idea of creating an Asia-Pacific NATO, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan—particularly their defense industries—should explore investments in joint defense projects with the Baltic states, especially in the field of drone production.
The Baltic countries offer several decisive advantages:
A strong technical base with world-class engineering and programming expertise.
An educated labor force capable of rapid adaptation.
Close defense cooperation with Ukraine, providing unique combat-tested insights.
A more agile and innovative defense market compared to the overstretched EU sector.
Above all, geography: proximity to Moscow and St. Petersburg provides a powerful military-political lever capable of deterring reckless moves by the Kremlin and its allies.
A Baltic drone army, created through strategic partnerships with Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei, could become a decisive bargaining chip in any negotiations concerning the security of these capitals. As Ukraine’s highly successful special operation “Spiderweb” demonstrated, even nuclear powers can be effectively deterred with relatively inexpensive, agile systems that existing air defense networks struggle to counter.
The current global situation bears troubling similarities to the interwar period of the 20th century, when international alliances were still in the process of institutionalization before the outbreak of World War II. Today, European and Asian security are more interconnected than perhaps at any time in modern history. Addressing these challenges requires joint work at multiple levels—including expanded research on Russia in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These three key democracies may well hold the potential to lay the foundations for an Asia-Pacific counterpart to NATO.
Anton Gromov
Political Scientist & Eurasian Security Expert | Chair at Astraea NGO | Focused on Russia–China–North Korea Relations & Information