Ghosts don’t die — they wait. Buried deep in the dusty archives of empires, they bide their time until they can crawl back into the light and demand blood. One such ghost has risen again on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, along the jagged scar known as the Durand Line — a colonial-era wound that never healed and is now one of the most volatile fault lines in Eurasia.
In recent weeks, heavy fighting has erupted along that frontier. Hundreds of militants launched coordinated assaults on Pakistani border posts in Kunar, Nangarhar, and Helmand, forcing regular troops to retreat and pushing Islamabad to deploy air power and artillery. But this isn’t just another random flare-up of violence. It’s a symptom of something deeper — a seismic shift in geopolitics, the unraveling of colonial borders, the collapse of old alliances, and the shifting of the region’s strategic center of gravity.
The critical question facing analysts now is this:
Is the current Afghanistan–Pakistan confrontation merely a localized border war — or the opening salvo in the dismantling of the entire post-colonial order in Central Asia?
To answer that, we need to dig far below the battle lines — into the historical, political, and geostrategic depths of a conflict that is far bigger than the firefights on the frontier.
A Colonial Line Afghanistan Has Refused to Recognize for 132 Years
No modern Asian border is as poisoned by colonial legacy as the Durand Line. Drawn in 1893 by British diplomat Sir Mortimer Durand to separate British India from the Emirate of Afghanistan, the line had one purpose: to divide the Pashtuns, shatter their tribal cohesion, and build a buffer zone between the Russian and British empires during the “Great Game.”
Stretching roughly 1,640 miles, the line sliced right through Pashtun lands, handing vast swaths over to British control. For London, it was a geopolitical masterpiece — engineered instability that allowed them to manipulate Kabul while securing the strategic Khyber Pass. For Afghans, it was a national trauma, a humiliating symbol of colonial theft and the dismemberment of their unity.
Since the agreement was signed, not a single Afghan government — not even the pro-Western monarchy of Zahir Shah — has ever recognized the Durand Line as an international border. To do so would be political suicide: it would mean abandoning claims to Pashtun lands and betraying the deeply ingrained national myth of a “united Pashtun nation.”
The issue escalated after 1947, when Pakistan was born. Afghanistan became the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations, citing the unresolved status of the border. By the 1950s, Kabul was openly advocating for “Pashtunistan” — an independent state carved out of Pakistan’s Pashtun-majority regions. Islamabad saw that as an existential threat.
To this day, the Durand Line is a “line but not a border.” Pakistan insists it’s an internationally recognized boundary; Afghanistan calls it illegitimate and imposed. But this isn’t just a cartographic dispute — it’s a fundamental identity fracture that makes hostility between Kabul and Islamabad structurally inevitable.
The Post-Imperial Hangover and the Pashtun Question
The Pashtuns — Afghanistan’s largest ethnic group, about 42% of the population, and a powerful demographic in Pakistan, with over 30 million people — are the linchpin of this conflict. Their historical role in Afghan statehood and their transborder presence make them central to the region’s politics.
For Kabul, the Pashtun question is not just about historical memory — it’s a core source of legitimacy. Any Afghan government, especially one like the Taliban that draws its strength from Pashtun identity, cannot afford compromise on the Durand Line. Surrendering those claims would mean abandoning a foundational pillar of its political narrative.
For Islamabad, however, Pashtun nationalism is an existential threat. A strong, cross-border Pashtun movement could unravel the state’s cohesion and fuel separatism in strategically vital provinces. That’s why Pakistan has worked hard to suppress such sentiments through religious identity, economic integration, and — when necessary — brute force.
In other words, the Durand Line isn’t just a border — it’s the fault line between two national projects: Afghanistan’s, rooted in ethnic identity and historical memory, and Pakistan’s, built on Islamic ideology and colonial-era frontiers.
Why the Border Is Burning Now: From TTP to a Strategic Recalibration
The 2021 Fallout: A Power Vacuum and New Political Realities
August 2021 was a watershed. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan shattered the old system of checks and balances that had held the status quo together for decades. For the first time in twenty years, Islamabad was left alone with Kabul — no Washington to mediate, no American pressure on the Taliban. And that changed everything.
Pakistan, long seen as the Taliban’s “godfather,” expected gratitude and strategic loyalty from the new regime. But once in power, the Taliban began acting like a sovereign government — seeking foreign policy independence and international legitimacy. That upended the foundation of Pakistan’s Afghanistan strategy, which rested on the assumption that the Taliban would remain pliable.
TTP: A Threat Islamabad Can’t Ignore
The biggest thorn in Pakistan’s side today is Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group waging an armed insurgency against the Pakistani state from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. According to Islamabad, the TTP’s ranks have more than doubled since 2021, reaching 6,000–8,000 fighters. In 2023 alone, the group carried out over 600 attacks, killing more than 850 Pakistani soldiers and civilians.
From Pakistan’s perspective, Kabul bears direct responsibility. Officials claim TTP fighters train and plan operations from Afghan soil — and that the Taliban not only look the other way but sometimes offer logistical support. For Islamabad, this isn’t a diplomatic spat — it’s a matter of internal security and state survival.
That’s why Pakistan justifies its cross-border airstrikes on TTP camps as acts of preemptive self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. Kabul, meanwhile, sees those strikes as blatant violations of sovereignty — a legal clash that only deepens the political rift.
Kabul’s Response: Defiance and a Refusal to Be Bullied
From the Afghan perspective, the story looks very different. The Taliban see Pakistan’s demands as an attempt to dictate foreign policy — something no sovereign state can accept. Allowing Islamabad to carry out operations on Afghan soil, they argue, would reduce Kabul to a second-tier actor and undermine its quest for global legitimacy.
Their response has been a show of force. The recent assaults on Pakistani border posts are Kabul’s way of signaling that the cost of such raids will be unacceptably high. As one Taliban official told Tolo News:
“If Pakistan keeps violating our territory, the Durand Line will become a line of fire. We will not let anyone dictate terms to Afghanistan.”
That statement captures a deeper reality: Afghanistan is no longer Pakistan’s “strategic vassal.” It’s emerging as an independent player — one willing to defend its interests, even at the risk of war.
The Tactics of War: Swarm Strategy and Asymmetric Momentum
From a military standpoint, the clashes unfolding today are anything but spontaneous. The Taliban’s tactics are deliberate, almost mathematical. Instead of conventional frontal assaults, they’ve adopted a “swarm strategy” — small, mobile units striking weak points, applying relentless pressure on Pakistani garrisons. “They sting like hornets,” admitted one Pakistani officer, “and vanish before we can mount a counterattack.”
Under that kind of assault, Pakistan’s regular forces are forced to maneuver and retreat — triggering a heavier response with artillery and air power. What begins as a border skirmish quickly escalates into a full-scale military operation.
According to Islamabad’s Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI), more than 70 firefights erupted along the Durand Line between September and October 2025, with the death toll on both sides surpassing 400. Pakistan’s air operations in the border regions are now the largest since 2014.
A Shift in Roles: Crisis of Trust and a New Diplomatic Map
One of the defining shifts of the post-American era has been the relocation of the Afghanistan–Pakistan dynamic from the security sphere into the realm of politics and diplomacy. Kabul is actively seeking new anchors to counterbalance Islamabad’s pressure. A telling moment came when Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India just as Pakistani jets were pounding border areas. New Delhi responded by announcing plans to reopen its embassy in Kabul — a move Islamabad read as a sign of strategic encirclement.
Beijing, traditionally Pakistan’s closest ally, is trying to walk a tightrope. China’s primary concern is the stability of its $60 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the crown jewel of the Belt and Road Initiative. But Beijing’s ability to mediate is limited: trilateral meetings with Pakistan and Afghanistan have so far failed to meaningfully ease tensions.
Iran, wary of instability spilling across its eastern frontier, has urged “restraint and dialogue.” Saudi Arabia, which recently signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, has also called for de-escalation in cautious diplomatic tones.
These reactions reveal a larger truth: the Afghanistan–Pakistan crisis has long outgrown its bilateral framework and is morphing into a regional source of strategic turbulence.
The Durand Line as a Geopolitical Fault Line: Old Maps, New Realities
The Durand Line is more than just a line drawn by a British diplomat 130 years ago. It’s a geopolitical axis upon which the balance of power across Central and South Asia depends. Its strategic weight isn’t just about ethnic identities or historical grievances — it’s about geography. This contested boundary connects Chinese interests in Xinjiang with Pakistani stakes in Balochistan, Afghan ambitions in Kunar, and Indian concerns in Jammu and Kashmir.
As long as the line remains disputed, the region is condemned to volatility. It blocks meaningful economic cooperation, disrupts the integration of transport and energy corridors, and turns every border skirmish into a potential regional crisis. That’s why the Durand Line’s future is not merely an Afghan-Pakistani problem — it’s a question that touches the entire security architecture of Eurasia.
India’s Comeback: Double-Containment and Strategic Reentry
For India, the current crisis is a historic opening — a chance to claw back lost influence in Afghanistan and weaken its arch-rival, Pakistan. In the 2000s, New Delhi was one of Afghanistan’s top investors, pouring over $3 billion into infrastructure, education, and energy. That presence collapsed after the Taliban takeover. Now, India is staging a comeback.
Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s official visit to New Delhi in September 2025 marked a major diplomatic milestone. India announced plans to restore its diplomatic presence and ramp up humanitarian programs. Indian officials went further, publicly labeling Pakistan a “shared threat” to regional stability.
That phrasing matters: it signals India’s willingness to forge a strategic partnership with the Taliban on an explicitly anti-Pakistan basis. For Islamabad, that means a new two-front reality — not just pressure from the east, but now from the west as well.
India’s strategy has two clear goals:
- Weaken Pakistan by forcing it to stretch its military and security resources across two borders.
- Anchor itself in Central Asia through Afghanistan, using it as a transit hub to deepen links with Iran, Central Asia, and Russia.
China’s Dilemma: Reluctant Mediator, Relentless Stakeholder
For China, the Afghanistan–Pakistan confrontation is first and foremost an economic threat. CPEC — the linchpin of Beijing’s Belt and Road ambitions — runs through volatile regions and has already been targeted by militant attacks. Escalation along the Durand Line raises the stakes for tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure and investment.
Beijing is trying to mediate, hosting trilateral talks and offering platforms for dialogue. But its leverage over the Taliban is limited. Despite generous economic promises, Kabul sees China as aligned with Pakistan rather than as a neutral broker. Beijing is also deeply concerned about extremist spillover from Afghanistan into Xinjiang — and about the potential for growing links between Pashtun militants and Uyghur Islamists.
If the situation deteriorates further, China could take unprecedented steps: expanding its security footprint to protect CPEC infrastructure or even proposing joint border patrols. Such moves would reshape the region’s strategic landscape and tighten the military bond between Beijing and Islamabad.
The United States: A Backstage Strategy of Controlled Chaos
Though Washington formally stepped back from Afghan affairs after 2021, it’s been watching events along the Durand Line with sharp attention. In the context of a new global standoff with China and Russia, the U.S. sees Central Asia as part of a broader playbook of “managed instability” — a way to divert Beijing’s resources and focus.
Washington has no interest in seeing Pakistan implode — it’s still a nuclear power and a key player in counterterrorism. But American strategists do see opportunity in the Afghanistan–Pakistan confrontation: a chance to constrain China’s room for maneuver and tighten Islamabad’s dependence on the Western financial system, especially amid its deepening economic crisis.
U.S. think tanks now frequently describe the Durand Line as a “geopolitical trigger of the 21st century.” A CSIS report from August 2025 notes:
“Instability along the Durand Line can tie down Beijing and Islamabad for years, opening new avenues for U.S. strategic leverage in the Indo-Pacific.”
Iran: Walking a Tightrope, Haunted by the Pashtun Factor
Tehran has long maintained close ties with the Hazara Shiite minority in Afghanistan and remains deeply wary of Sunni Pashtun radicalism. Escalation along the Durand Line risks spiraling into a broader conflict that could destabilize Iran’s eastern provinces and complicate its position in Central Asia.
For now, Iran calls for “dialogue and restraint.” But if Afghan-Pakistani relations collapse, Tehran could move to protect its interests more aggressively — potentially by backing select factions on the ground. Long term, Iran’s priority is the creation of a trans-Afghan transport corridor linking it to China and Central Asia, which makes stability along the Durand Line a strategic necessity.
Russia and Central Asia: Onlookers or Future Players?
Moscow has traditionally kept its distance from Afghanistan–Pakistan disputes, treating them as “South Asia’s internal affairs.” But a stronger Taliban, rising extremist activity, and a potential refugee surge could quickly turn this border war into a security headache for the entire post-Soviet region.
Russia and the Central Asian republics are watching closely. Escalation could push Moscow to deepen coordination with Iran and China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). If threats to the southern frontier grow, that coordination could evolve from diplomatic consultations into tangible military cooperation.
Future Scenarios: Between Endless War and a New Border Order
The fight over the Durand Line isn’t a temporary flare-up — it’s a long-term collision of two historical narratives and two visions of the future. Any forecast must be made in terms of years, not months. Three scenarios stand out as the most plausible.
Scenario I: The “Forever War of Attrition” (Most Likely)
In this scenario, the Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict drags on in waves — periods of relative calm punctuated by violent flare-ups. Both sides continue practicing “managed escalation”:
– Pakistan launches periodic airstrikes and special operations against TTP.
– Afghanistan hits border outposts and stages shows of force.
Neither side declares war outright, wary of global backlash and domestic instability. The war remains “below the threshold” — undeclared but deadly.
Consequences:
– The region sinks into chronic instability.
– Regional integration projects, including CPEC, face constant risk.
– Third parties — India, China, Iran — gain leverage as power brokers.
– The Durand Line hardens into a “permanent front” for Central Asia, much like the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Risks:
– Radical groups expand their reach and cross-border activity.
– External powers get drawn into the conflict.
– Pashtun separatist sentiment grows inside Pakistan.
Scenario II: Redrawing the Status Quo (Medium-Term Outlook)
In this scenario, domestic and external pressures gradually force a de facto reconfiguration of the Durand Line — even without its formal recognition. Afghanistan continues rejecting the border legally, but both sides may arrive at practical arrangements:
– Demarcating specific stretches of the frontier.
– Establishing buffer zones.
– Creating joint security and patrol mechanisms.
– Coordinating operations against TTP.
Such a scenario would require active mediation — most likely from China — and a rare degree of political will on both sides.
Consequences:
– The conflict cools, creating space for cooperation.
– Afghanistan is gradually integrated into regional infrastructure and energy networks.
– A new security model emerges at the crossroads of Central and South Asia.
Risks:
– Internal resistance within Afghanistan, where any compromise over the Durand Line is seen as outright betrayal.
– Potential provocations by radical groups seeking to sabotage any emerging deal.
Scenario III: The “Big Explosion” (Low Probability, Catastrophic Impact)
The most dangerous scenario envisions the conflict slipping out of control and escalating into a full-scale war. That outcome would likely require several triggers to align:
– A major TTP terrorist attack causing mass casualties inside Pakistan.
– A large-scale Pakistani airstrike deep inside Afghan territory.
– Armed intervention by a third party or a sudden outbreak of separatism in Pashtun-majority regions.
A full-blown war would be catastrophic: millions of refugees, an explosion of radicalism, derailed regional projects, and the involvement of outside powers. The ripple effects wouldn’t stop at South Asia — they would destabilize the entire Eurasian continent.
Key Takeaways: The Durand Line as a Symptom of the Postcolonial Crisis
- The Durand Line is more than a border — it’s a living symbol of colonial legacy that still shapes the region’s strategic map. Afghanistan’s refusal to recognize it isn’t a whim; it’s embedded in the country’s national identity and political legitimacy.
- The conflict is systemic — fueled by ethnic, ideological, and historical forces that cannot be erased by military means alone.
- America’s withdrawal created a power vacuum now being filled by new players — India, China, and Iran. The Afghanistan–Pakistan confrontation is becoming a stage for broader geopolitical rivalry.
- Pakistan faces a two-front challenge: an internal insurgency led by TTP and external pressure from a more independent and assertive Kabul.
- What began as a border dispute is evolving into a clash of competing visions for the region’s future order.
Recommendations: A Strategy for the Post-Durand Era
- Establish a permanent trilateral framework — Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China — tasked with coordinating security, countering TTP, and jointly managing border areas.
- Pursue international legitimation of the Durand Line through U.N. or SCO mediation. Even if formal recognition is off the table, fixing its de facto status and creating mechanisms to manage incidents is vital.
- Integrate Afghanistan into regional projects (CPEC, TAPI, CASA-1000) as an incentive for de-escalation. Economic interdependence can lower the appetite for confrontation.
- Build trust at the border: joint patrols, intelligence sharing, and coordinated operations against TTP.
- Involve regional powers — Iran, Russia, and the Central Asian states — in a multilateral dialogue aimed at constructing a more resilient security architecture.
Ghosts of Empire and the New Reality
The Durand Line is not just a relic of 19th-century imperial cartography. It’s a mirror reflecting the full drama of the postcolonial world: borders drawn with a British diplomat’s pen still spill blood 130 years later. But the battles raging today on those rocky ridges are not about the past — they are about the future. A future where old imperial maps are shredded by new realities, and states born from their ruins are forced to redefine their place in the world.
This is not a local skirmish or a routine border incident. It is the opening chapter in a long, painful process of reimagining borders, identities, and alliances across Central and South Asia. And until that process runs its course, the ghosts of Durand will keep rising from the shadows — harvesting their bloody crop and reminding the world that history never ends. It only changes shape.