Syria stopped being the master of its own fate a long time ago. Its skies are now a free-for-all for foreign jets, and its soil a chessboard for powers chasing their own Middle East game plan. The latest wave of Israeli airstrikes—brazen in execution, staggering in duration—sends a crystal-clear message: Tel Aviv is no longer playing coy about its endgame.
What Israel frames as “protecting the Druze” is, in truth, a deliberate geopolitical play aimed squarely at two targets: the Syrian government and Turkey. These aren’t defensive moves—they’re part of a long game. Israel wants to choke off Ankara’s growing influence, derail the integration of Turkey-backed factions in Syria, and sabotage any shot at postwar stabilization. Most telling—and most troubling—is that the Druze community has become collateral damage in this silent war. The same Druze who could play a pivotal, stabilizing role in rebuilding southern Syria.
For Turkey, this isn’t something you sit back and watch unfold. Stability along its southern border isn’t just some regional balancing act—it’s a matter of national security. Ankara has consistently backed Syria’s sovereignty, its territorial integrity, and a political process free from foreign puppeteers. If someone’s trying to turn southern Syria into a proxy battleground, Turkey isn’t going to stay on the sidelines. It will act—like a regional power, a guardian of peace, and a state with real skin in the game.
Israel vs. Syria and Turkey: A New Chapter in an Old War
Since early April 2025, Israel has been running a full-blown, next-level air campaign inside Syria—something the region hasn’t seen before, not at this scale and not for this long. The IDF’s air force unleashed a barrage of strikes, not just hitting the south or the outskirts of Damascus, but stretching all the way north—with pinpoint attacks clearly designed to blow up Turkey’s plans for integrating its allied factions into a new Syrian force.
But here’s the kicker—it’s not the number of air raids that turned heads. It’s the fact that Israeli fighter jets were circling over southern Syria for 72 straight hours. From April 2 to April 5, 2025, Israeli warplanes patrolled skies over Suwayda, Daraa, and even Damascus without pause. That’s unheard of. Even during peak escalations in past years, airstrikes lasted 6 to 12 hours max. This time, Israel held the sky for three full days.
According to Israeli broadcaster Kan 11, the operation featured F-35i “Adir” stealth jets, Shavit electronic warfare planes, and Hermes 900 drones for round-the-clock target tracking.
But the real punch? It landed far from the headlines. While everyone expected southern targets, the actual hits were concentrated in Syria’s north—around Hama and Aleppo. That’s no accident. That’s exactly where two major Turkey-backed groups had dug in:
— The Sultan Murad Division, a key Turkish proxy that played a major role in the “Euphrates Shield” and “Olive Branch” ops.
— The Suleiman Shah Brigade, another heavy-hitter, armed and bankrolled via Turkey’s MIT intelligence service and tied to commander Tahir Shammar.
In March 2025, both these factions inked a deal with Syria’s interim government—backed by Qatar and Turkey—to formally join a new, unified Syrian military. The blueprint called for a centralized force with around 18,000 fighters pulled from various opposition units, many of them loyal to Ankara.
That plan didn’t sit well with Israel.
Per reports from Syria Direct and the UK-based SOHR, Israel’s strikes targeted warehouses, command hubs, convoys, and training camps linked to those factions. The toll over three days:
— 11 infrastructure sites wiped out in Hama and Idlib
— 7 armored vehicles and at least 2 rocket systems destroyed
— Over 40 fighters killed, including officers trained in Turkey (SOHR, April 6, 2025)
Bottom line? This wasn’t a reaction—it was a strategic hit job. Israel set out to cripple the unification of Turkey’s proxies into a central Syrian army. And for Tel Aviv, that consolidation is a double threat:
- It could legitimize Turkish influence in Syria, opening official doors through the Syrian Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs.
- It raises the specter of a “shadow alliance” between Damascus and Ankara. Faced with political extinction, the Sharaa regime might strike a deal—some kind of conditional federalism—that carves out space for Turkey-backed actors in the new Syria.
That, for Israel, is a red line.
A formalized Turkish footprint near Israel’s northern frontier threatens its hold over the southern security arc—and revives old fears about the Golan Heights, especially if Turkey starts pushing its proxies southward, under the guise of joint anti-Iran ops.
Publicly, Israel keeps harping on its supposed humanitarian concern for Syria’s Druze. But behind the PR curtain, this is cold-blooded realpolitik. Israel’s mission is to knock out two major threats: Turkish ascendancy and the survival of Sharaa’s regime. That’s what shapes Israel’s long-term footprint in Syria—and defines its behind-the-scenes dealings with local powerbrokers, especially among the Druze.
This isn’t just a border conflict. It’s a slow-burn, high-stakes campaign where jets and missiles speak louder than press releases—and where regional giants like Turkey and Israel are playing for keeps.
1. Blocking Turkey’s Rise in Syria
From Tel Aviv’s perspective, Turkey isn’t just another regional player—it’s a long-term geopolitical headache. As Ankara leans harder into its neo-Ottoman ambitions, Israel sees the writing on the wall. Turkish-backed militias entrenched in northern and northwestern Syria, their integration into the Syrian National Army (SNA), and Ankara’s swelling political, logistical, and ideological footprint—all of it spells trouble for Israel’s southern security arc.
Military encroachment? You bet. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that Turkey holds sway over a dozen major brigades inside the SNA and maintains a presence in more than 50 Syrian towns and villages. If these proxy outfits get folded into postwar state structures, we’re staring down the barrel of a de facto “Turkish Kurdistan” stretching across northern Syria—with possible spillover into Damascus’ power corridors.
Golan jitters? Very real. Analysts at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies have flagged an alarming scenario: if Turkey’s proxies creep down south—even indirectly—it could form a pressure arc right along the eastern edge of the Golan Heights. For Israel, that’s a hard no.
So what’s the game plan? Israel is betting on containment. That means quietly propping up autonomous zones—chiefly among the Druze—as a buffer against Turkish reach. Any movement by the SNA or Ankara-aligned Sunni units toward southern Syria is met with subtle but decisive pushback from Israeli intelligence and special forces.
2. Targeting the Sharaa Regime
After Bashar al-Assad stepped aside, Ahmad al-Sharaa took the reins in Damascus—and from Israel’s point of view, that’s just swapping one Iran-backed strongman for another. Sharaa’s regime is knee-deep in Tehran’s playbook, from weapons transfers to hosting IRGC forces under the guise of Syrian Army units.
And while there’s no hot war between Syria and Israel, let’s not kid ourselves. Tel Aviv sees a threat in every missile shipment and every Shiite militia foothold backed by Iran and Hezbollah.
How’s Israel responding? With firepower. In just the first quarter of 2025, Israel launched more than 25 airstrikes across Syria, concentrating on Damascus, Homs, and Suwayda. The prime targets: IRGC stockpiles, Iraqi and Lebanese Shia command hubs—and increasingly, Syrian Army outposts believed to be coordinating with Tehran.
But there’s more than bombs falling.
Enter the Druze angle. Tel Aviv is hedging its bets on an alternative to the Sharaa regime. The key player? Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, a prominent Druze spiritual leader who’s made a sharp turn against Damascus in 2025. After a string of violent incidents targeting Druze civilians—including attacks in Sahnaya and Jaramana—he went public, accusing the Syrian regime of waging a “genocide” against his community and likening their tactics to ISIS. That wasn’t just talk—he called for international peacekeepers to step in.
And here’s the kicker: Early this year, al-Hijri made a quiet trip to Washington, where sources say he pitched a blueprint for a Druze-led revolt against Sharaa. Then came reports—still unconfirmed—that Israel airlifted him out of Suwayda via chopper when his life was in danger. If true, it’s a bold statement: Israel sees him not just as a survivor, but as a future transitional figure for southern Syria.
The Israeli doctrine is clear:
— Shut down Turkey’s proxy empire before it metastasizes across postwar Syria
— Smash any Iranian satellite state rising out of Damascus
Everything else—airstrikes, diplomacy in D.C. and Brussels, the tactical alliance with the Druze—is just the scaffolding of a bigger strategic structure. Israel wants the southern Syrian theater carved up, fragmented, and managed by local elites who lack the muscle or mandate to join any anti-Israel coalitions.
The Druze Divide: Between Loyalty and Provocation
2025 has been a year of fracture in Syria, especially in Suwayda province, home to much of the country’s Druze population. Historically neutral, the Druze have found themselves sucked into the power vortex. And that’s triggered a bitter internal split.
On one side: Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, long seen as a calm hand guiding the Druze through chaos, is now a man on a mission. The tipping point came in April 2025, after multiple attacks on Druze communities. Hijri accused the regime of orchestrating a targeted campaign of violence and went so far as to compare their tactics to ISIS—pulling zero punches. He even issued a plea for UN peacekeepers to shield his people.
Back in February, al-Hijri touched down in D.C. with a plan: build a resistance front against the Sharaa regime. Word is, he’s pitching himself as a rallying point for a new political order in the south. And if that rumored Israeli extraction by helicopter is real, it signals not just military support—but a political endorsement.
On the other side: Laith al-Balous, son of slain Druze militia leader Wahid al-Balous, leads a different faction. He’s pushing for reconciliation with Damascus and wants the Druze integrated into Syria’s central structures. In fact, Syria’s Ministry of Interior just inked a deal with his group—“Men of Dignity”—to restore order in Suwayda. But not everyone’s cheering. Detractors accuse him of selling out the Druze to a regime that still has blood on its hands.
This isn’t just a leadership clash—it’s a full-blown identity crisis. Some Druze want autonomy, backed by international guarantees. Others see survival in staying close to Damascus. And in the middle? A vulnerable, fragmented community being played like a pawn in a bigger regional power game.
Israel’s all-in. It’s stepping up strikes “in response” to attacks on Druze civilians—but the broader goal is clear: carve out influence in the south while Turkey and Iran fight for their own slice of Syria’s future. Ankara, meanwhile, is also eyeing the Druze file, hoping to sway local actors for its own strategic agenda.
The result? The Druze are caught in a storm of competing allegiances, internal fractures, and foreign ambitions. And unless a clear, secure path forward emerges, they risk becoming yet another casualty of Syria’s endless war.
Winners and Losers in Syria’s South: A High-Stakes Power Game with No Clean Hands
What’s unfolding in southern Syria isn’t just a regional skirmish—it’s a collision of worldviews. Everyone’s chasing leverage, not peace. And in this murky multi-actor theater, winning isn’t about firepower—it’s about who can adapt, co-opt, and manipulate the chaos to their advantage.
Who’s Winning?
Israel
If Tel Aviv pulls off its current gambit—splintering the Druze community while sidelining Turkish proxies—it wins big. The payoff?
– A safer northern flank, with less Turkish and Iranian shadow play
– Eyes and ears deeper inside Syria, thanks to boosted intel ops
– Most importantly, strategic dominance over a southern Syria carved up into manageable, fragmented zones
For Israel, nudging Turkey out of the Druze equation isn’t just a side mission—it’s the crown jewel.
The United States
Washington smells opportunity. With Ankara increasingly seen as a loose cannon and Iran a perennial adversary, U.S. policymakers are eyeing a comeback in Syria via a neutralized—or even pro-Western—Druze leadership.
A Druze-led enclave? That’s a goldmine:
– Intelligence staging ground
– Potential light-footprint military presence
– Access to the strategic triangle bordering Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel
No need to dance with Erdoğan or poke Tehran too hard. It’s a workaround with upside.
Local Power Brokers
Those who can play the angles—balancing U.S., Israeli, Turkish, and Syrian interests—are thriving. For savvy tribal sheikhs, ex-generals, and militia bosses, it’s open season for building local fiefdoms. The trick? Be useful to the right power at the right time. In a battlefield this scrambled, survival favors the agile.
Who’s Losing?
Turkey
Ankara is taking hits—both literal and political. Every Israeli drone strike on Turkish-backed outfits like the Sultan Murad Division chips away at its clout.
Losing traction in al-Hawran or Suwayda means less pressure on Damascus and more headaches for Turkish planners juggling Idlib, Tel Rifaat, and a floundering playbook in northern Iraq.
Erdogan’s Syria file isn’t just messy—it’s bleeding leverage.
The Sharaa Regime
Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government is hemorrhaging control in the south. The dream of postwar reconciliation? Slipping away.
– Druze trust is imploding
– Suwayda’s drifting toward de facto autonomy
– Foreign interference is surging
Damascus risks being demoted from central authority to paper government in half its own country.
The Druze Community
Caught in the crossfire, the Druze are fractured, manipulated, and—at times—weaponized.
Their top leaders are being pulled into foreign agendas. Some are riding with Tel Aviv and Washington; others cling to Damascus.
The result? Internal rifts, eroding legitimacy, and a growing risk of becoming pawns in someone else’s game.
No One Wins for Free
There are no absolute victories here—only tactical wins and temporary leverage. In this game:
– Those who dictate the tempo score short-term gains
– Those stuck reacting lose initiative
– And those paralyzed by indecision risk getting erased
Now let’s zoom in on two scenarios shaping this shadow war.
Scenario 1: Escalation – Israel Takes the Fight to Turkey’s Proxies
The Play:
Israel keeps pounding Turkey-linked forces under the pretense of protecting the Druze. The real goal? Erase Turkish influence across central and northern Syria.
Expect continued airstrikes, high-altitude ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) flights, and strikes on logistics and training hubs.
Hard Evidence:
– The Sultan Murad Division and Suleiman Shah Brigade were hit just as they were preparing for integration into state structures.
– Israeli drones and electronic warfare systems are jamming Syrian air defenses—this is a long game.
– Recon ops are ramping up near Suwayda and the Golan.
Risks:
– Turkey could flood Idlib and Aleppo with reinforcements—early signs already there.
– The skies are getting crowded. An Israeli-Turkish air clash isn’t unthinkable.
– NATO cohesion and Russian alliances could be tested in ways that spiral fast.
Likelihood:
High (≈70%). This is Israel’s default playbook heading into Q2 2025—sustained pressure and strategic attrition.
Scenario 2: The Druze Card – A Soft Coup with Foreign Backing
The Play:
Israel—quietly backed by the U.S.—leans into regime change lite. The plan? Elevate Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri as a Druze national figurehead and seed a parallel power center in the south.
The long-term bet is on grassroots uprisings and gradual regime erosion.
Early Signs:
– Al-Hijri’s February trip to Washington raised eyebrows.
– Reports of his chopper evacuation by Israel hint at deeper ties.
– Leaks in U.S. and Israeli outlets talk of a “friendly transition” in Syria.
The Toolkit:
– Uprisings in Suwayda framed as a “self-rule” movement
– Narratives of Druze genocide amplified across media (already in motion)
– Pressure campaigns through the UN and Western NGOs
Risks:
– Alienates pro-Damascus Druze—a big chunk of the population
– Could ignite an intra-Druze civil war
– Guaranteed backlash from Tehran and Moscow, who see this as a red line
Likelihood:
Moderate (≈40%). It’s in the works, but too many moving pieces. Think of it as a pressure lever or backup plan—not Plan A.
This isn’t Syria 2011. This is Syria 2025—a proxy sandbox where alliances are fluid, risks are nuclear, and the old rules no longer apply.
Scenario 3: The Diplomatic Reset – A Multilateral Off-Ramp Backed by Baku, Moscow, and the UN
The Premise:
After a dangerous spike in hostilities and a growing risk of open conflict, the international community, nudged by Baku as a neutral go-between, initiates a high-stakes de-escalation push. The roadmap?
– Rein in Israeli military operations
– Guarantee Syria’s territorial integrity
– Allow for a narrowly defined Turkish presence under international oversight
Why Baku?
Because few players can talk to everyone—and be trusted by most. Azerbaijan has been playing quiet mediator since early 2025, already brokering backchannel talks between Israel and Turkey. It also maintains functional ties with Iran, Israel, and Turkey—an increasingly rare trifecta. And after playing a key stabilizing role in the post-Karabakh landscape, Baku has credibility as a regional actor not out to dominate, but to contain.
Early Signs of Movement:
– Joint foreign ministry statements from Azerbaijan and Turkey calling for "regional de-escalation"
– Russian diplomats spotted in quiet consultations in Istanbul and Tehran
– Behind-the-scenes drafting of a framework for Druze autonomy within a united Syrian state
Risks and Fallout:
– Israel may see this as a leash on its freedom to maneuver
– The U.S. is unlikely to openly back any format involving Iran, even indirectly
– Turkey may demand concessions—military or political—in exchange for scaling back
Odds of This Scenario?
Low but climbing (≈25%). This only moves to the front burner if Tel Aviv’s current plan nosedives or we see a near-miss incident that spooks everyone to the table.
Southern Syria: Flashpoint or Pivot Point?
What happens next in Syria’s south isn’t just a footnote in a long war—it’s the region’s stress test. Can the Middle East resist being dragged into yet another externally scripted war? Or will it fold under the weight of unilateral adventurism?
In the coming months, everything hinges on one brutal equation:
Internal Syrian fragmentation + Tel Aviv’s solo act = regional rupture
If Israel stays the course—hammering Turkish proxies, flouting international consensus, and if Washington keeps playing the strong, silent type—that’s not a roadmap to peace. That’s a recipe for open-ended chaos.
But Ankara thinks there’s still time to flip the script. Turkey doesn’t want this war. But it won’t get muscled out of the game. It’s not looking for hegemony—but it’s not handing the keys to anyone hiding behind "humanitarian" narratives while planting the seeds of instability.
There’s still a way out. But it’s narrow, and closing fast. If Baku, Moscow, and Riyadh can get on the same page and build a durable political platform—maybe we don’t get peace, but we might just avoid the plunge.
The clock’s ticking. The choice is stark: a shared architecture of peace—or a new war with aftershocks far beyond Syria’s broken borders.
Would you like this final scenario presented as part of a comprehensive strategic forecast or broken down into a diplomatic briefing-style document?